The outlook for the global shipping sector for the next 12 months remains stable due to the expected improvements in supply and demand in the dry bulk and container transport segments and the overall growth of the sector’s profits of 4% 5%, according to the Moody’s rating agency.
However, the prospects for the segment of tankers or oil tankers are negative since the supply is still high and charter rates are low.
“Demand will slightly exceed supply in the dry bulk segment, while supply and demand are likely to be fairly matched in the container transport segment, combined with our expectation of 4% -5% organic growth of earnings in the next 12 months, underpins our stable outlook in the global shipping and maritime sector, despite the continued excess supply in the tanker or oil segment, “said Maria Maslovsky, vice president and senior analyst at Moody’s. .
“Recent announcements of tariffs in the US Aimed at imports of steel and aluminum from certain countries and possible reprisals pose downside risks to the global maritime sector,” Maslovsky added.
In the dry bulk segment, in the last 12 months up to April 2018, the size of the global solid bulk fleet grew by only 1%, which is positive for the segment. Moody’s expects demand to exceed the offer by approximately 1% in 2018. Chartering rates have improved, but the rating agency expects them to remain volatile.
In the container transport segment, the broad macroeconomic growth coupled with the growth of trade will support demand. However, the high growth of supply, especially in the first half of 2018, “will probably prevent further material increases in freight rates”.
In the segment of oil tankers, significant new deliveries will continue in 2018 after a sudden increase in supply in 2017, with tankers / oil tankers representing the largest share. Moody’s said the industry will take time to absorb these new deliveries, so chartering or chartering rates “will probably remain low in the next 12 months.”
