Shortages 2025: Geopolitics, severe weather fuel uncertainty

While some tailwinds prompting shortages in 2024 may have been resolved, others will carry onto this year with additional twists.

Supply chain managers may still have to deal with risks ranging from geopolitical and weather-related turmoil to more localized challenges.

Heightened shortage risks come whenever a change impacts a high concentration of goods manufactured or produced in a very limited number of places, said Richie Daigle, supply chain evangelist at Tive, a shipment tracker technology company.

Here’s a look at the goods and topics that could be at the top of mind for procurement officers in 2025.

Geopolitical-driven shortages

As President Donald Trump threatens to levy tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with additional duties on China-based imports, experts say the moves would have an outsized impact on certain goods.

For example, if there are tariffs on Canadian goods, it could create shortages for energy products, pulp and paper products, and automotive parts, said Matt Lekstutis, director at global procurement and supply chain consultancy Efficio, in an interview with Supply Chain Dive.

“There’s lots of conversations going on around potential tariff actions. Those things could also lead to disruptions in supply chain as companies look to find new sources, look to reroute, to avoid tariff issues, and even the cross border administration that could come into play,” Lekstutis said.

Shippers will need to evaluate suppliers globally as they adjust to any price increases spurred by tariffs, said Spencer Shute, VP at procurement and supply chain consultancy Proxima.

“This process could lead to shortages where cost impacts are prohibitive, creating delays in overall manufacturing. This is a critical topic to watch in 2025,” Shute said.

Automotive parts

Even with Trump solidifying his tariff plans, automotive supply chains have had plenty of other sourcing challenges to navigate over the past year

Rivian Automotive, for example, lowered its annual production guidance last year by up to 10,000 vehicles due to an ongoing parts shortage, according to an Oct. 4 securities filing.

Another car maker, Porsche, faced aluminum shortages after a flood at a supplier’s facility in July.

“It is to be expected that the resulting delays in the production and delivery of vehicles will not be fully compensated for in the further course of the financial year,” the company said last year.

When Porsche goes through a crisis, it has more than one solution and a host of measures to secure supply, according to a 2023 annual and sustainability report from the automaker.

One strategy the company uses is closely examining every component to determine if a certain amount of inventory makes sense, Barbara Frenkel, a member of the executive board for procurement at Porsche, said in the report.

“Prioritizing certain cars in production is another sensible options for getting through any shortages,” according to the report.

Food

Egg prices and supplies experienced a tough year in 2024 as bird flu outbreaks persisted. Shortages and elevated prices are expected to continue in 2025.

Egg producer Cal-Maine Foods said it saw demand outpace available supply, according to a Q2 earnings report. As a result, the company has had to buy from outside suppliers and rely more on capacity from recent acquisitions to meet customer needs.

Outbreaks from the bird flu and facility fires last year led to the loss of nearly 40 million commercial table egg layers in 12 states, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“Ultimately these shortages will lead to delays in food production where e…