A new report has sounded a stark warning for the global shipping industry, stating that it is not on track to meet its target of achieving 5% zero-emission fuels by 2030. The report, published by the UCL Energy Institute, UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, and the Global Maritime Forum’s Getting to Zero Coalition, emphasizes that the next 12 months are crucial for the industry to avoid falling behind its long-term climate goals.
Shipping, which accounts for around 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions—more than countries like Germany—faces significant challenges in decarbonization. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a goal of ensuring that zero- or near-zero-emission fuels make up 5% to 10% of all shipping fuels by 2030. This target is critical for building the infrastructure and supply chains necessary to support long-term decarbonization, with an ultimate goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
The report, titled Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough, highlights slow progress across several key areas, including the production and adoption of scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF). Under conservative estimates, current fuel production could fall short of the 5% target, with only 43% of necessary fuel in the pipeline. Similarly, the current fleet of SZEF-capable vessels would meet just 25% of demand by 2030.
“Without immediate action, the transition will be longer, costlier, and less environmentally impactful,” said Dr. Domagoi Baresic, a Research Fellow at UCL Energy Institute. He added that the shipping industry must accelerate its adoption of hydrogen-derived fuels to stay on track.
Of the 35 actions required to meet the 2030 target, only eight are currently deemed “on track,” while 13 have fallen behind, and 14 remain partially aligned. However, the report maintains that the goal remains within reach if significant changes occur swiftly. Jesse Fahnestock, Director of Decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum, stressed the urgency, saying, “The next 12 months will be decisive in determining whether the industry can meet its targets.”
The report also identifies five critical “system change levers”—supply, demand, finance, policy, and civil society—that must be aligned to meet the 5% zero-emission fuel goal by 2030. Among these, finance and demand are the most off track. The report points to a slowdown in funding for SZEF projects, alongside increased investment in fossil-fueled vessels. Public financial intervention is suggested as a potential remedy.
While global policy progress has been positive, particularly following the 2023 IMO Strategy on GHG Emissions Reduction, more national-level initiatives are needed to support SZEF infrastructure and vessel development. Civil society, meanwhile, has made strides in raising awareness of equity and training issues, but these efforts must now translate into concrete actions.
The report concludes with a call to action for all stakeholders across the maritime ecosystem. Without intensified efforts, it warns, shipping’s role in limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C will be in jeopardy.
Source: Global Maritime Forum
