Chinese Trade Surplus Soars to $1 Trillion Ahead of Trump Return

Jan 13, 2025 (Bloomberg) –China’s trade surplus soared to a record last year, driven by strong exports that boosted the economy but may soon be threatened by the incoming Trump administration.

The surplus jumped to an unprecedented $992 billion in 2024, according to a statement from the customs administration on Monday, 21% higher than the previous year. That was the result of record exports but also the continued weakness of imports, which have been dragged down by sluggish domestic consumption and falling commodity prices.

“With rising external uncertainty over trade policies of the incoming Trump administration, China’s export growth is likely to face severe challenges this year,” Kelvin Lam, senior China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note. “All eyes are on January 20 — Trump’s first day in office — to see whether he will follow through on his rhetoric and impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China from day one.”

Strong demand from overseas has helped provide growth for a domestic economy weighed down by a yearslong housing crisis. Exports accounted for nearly a quarter of the economy’s expansion in 2024, although that support now faces external challenges from the US and other trade partners.

The president-elect’s tariff threa…