Analysis: When will ocean carriers return to the Red Sea?

A reported ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas has raised speculation about when global container shipping lines could resume regular operations through the Red Sea.

The route is a critical link to the Suez Canal for ships sailing between Asia and the Mediterranean, Europe and North America.

In a wave of attacks that reshaped the global supply chain, Yemen-based Houthi rebels since late 2023 have terrorized merchant vessels they claim are linked to Israel, with drones, missiles and watercraft.

The attacks have killed two; two vessels and their crews remain captive in Yemen and Iran.

American and European military forces since 2024 have deployed naval escorts to protect merchant ships in the region. Even so, most major ocean carriers have chosen to divert container and tanker services away from the Red Sea and on longer, more expensive voyages around the Horn of Africa. One exception is French carrier CMA CGM, which has mostly maintained its Middle East rotations.

The diversions have added as much as two weeks’ sailing time to typical services, taken capacity out of the market and compounded delays and port congestion while releasing tons of additional polluting emissions from oceangoing ships.

Carriers saw median delays of 4-6 days in November, said analyst project44, down from a peak of 13 days in February 2024.

Tolls from the Suez Canal dropped 60% in 2024 — a major concern f…

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