Tariffs could have undue effects on recycling, waste sectors

Recycling and waste industry groups have raised concerns about how President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China could affect recycled commodity markets, operational costs and availability of key equipment and parts.

Trump signed executive orders this week enacting 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Recycling and waste groups say they’re concerned the dynamic situation could prompt a trade war that might affect jobs and the economy.

Tariffs on items from Canada and Mexico products were supposed to take effect Tuesday, but the Trump administration agreed to pause such tariffs for 30 days after both countries said they would enact more efforts to prevent drug trafficking.

Meanwhile, China and the U.S. did not arrive at a deal to suspend tariffs. On Tuesday, China instead responded by issuing a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, as well as a 10% levy on crude oil, vehicles and some agricultural machinery.

Trade groups such as the Recycled Materials Association and the National Waste & Recycling Association have spoken out against the issue.

“These tariffs would increase costs, disrupt supply chains, and hinder investment in critical infrastructure, ultimately raising prices for American consumers,” said Kirk Sander, NWRA senior vice president of safety and standards, in an emailed statement. 

The tariffs could also hinder recycling industry job creation and harm domestic manufacturing, added Robin Wiener, president of the Recycled Materials Association, in a statement.

“These new tariffs, and any retaliatory measures they may provoke, will only reduce the competitiveness of our industry and the manufacturers that rely on recycled materials,” she said. 

Shifting trade relationships

U.S. recycled commodity trade with Canada is a major part of the industry, with more than $8 billion in recycled materials crossing the border between the two countries each year. The U.S. is a net exporter of recycled materials to Canada, making the latter “one of the largest, if not the largest, export market for us for recycled materials,” Adam Shaffer, ReMA’s assistant vice president of international trade and global affairs, said in an interview with Waste Dive. 

Canada’s proposed tariffs on U.S. imports lists thousands of items, but as of Tuesday, “none of our recycled materials are on that retaliation list yet,” Shaffer said. Some items on the list typically contain recycled materials. He cautioned that the Canadian government could also add more types of products to the list.

“We’re very concerned that some of these trade measures may not only impact what’s happening in terms of trade of our products, but also of downstream manufactured goods, where recycled materials are key inputs,” Shaffer said.

The U.S.’ recycled commodities trade with Mexico is also a significant one, especially for recycled paper and ferrous products, he said. In 2023, the U.S. imported about $1.5 billion in recyclable commodities from Mexico and exported about $1.8 billion, Shaffer said. 

Companies that operate close to the U.S. borders may feel localized effects on markets first, said Emily Friedman, recycled plastics senior market editor at ICIS. 

Some waste companies that operate near the Canadian border have expressed concerns about the possible impacts tariffs might have on waste shipments, added David Biderman, president of Biderman Consulting, in an email to Waste Dive. 

Recycled plastic markets could feel effects

Recycled plastic markets are likely to see a range of tariff impacts, with some recycled plastic commodities faring better than others, Friedman said. Overall, U.S. imports of recycled plastic commodities from Mexico have slowed over the last few years, she said, but Canada “has still been our number one trade partner when it comes to plastic scrap.”

In the case of recycled PET flake, however, U.S. converters often import the material from regions that are not included in these tariffs, such as from other countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Countries in those regions may gai…