A new report released on November 13, 2024, by the UCL Energy Institute and UMAS reveals a concerning increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping. The report, titled “Transition Trends: International Shipping Emissions from 2018 to 2022,” documents a rise in emissions and a slowdown in carbon intensity reductions across the shipping sector, putting it at odds with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) target to cut emissions by 20-30% from 2008 levels by 2030.
The findings show that despite some energy efficiency improvements, the growth in shipping demand has largely counteracted these gains. This trend was notably impacted by a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which led to a reduction in transport work and emissions. However, post-pandemic recovery saw a surge in trade in 2021, contributing to increased shipping activity, faster vessel speeds, and rising emissions.
The study also notes that IMO’s current regulations, such as the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), have had limited success in driving substantial fleet-wide efficiency improvements. Between 2018 and 2022, transport work rose slightly by about 1% annually, a slower pace than the 3% annual growth from 2008 to 2018. Similarly, carbon intensity improvements slowed to around 1.1% per year, well below earlier levels.
According to Tristan Smith, a professor at UCL Energy Institute, the shipping industry has significant untapped efficiency potential. Smith highlighted the need for stronger regulations to encourage operational improvements, adding that IMO’s 2025 decisions on efficiency and energy policy will be critical to meeting its climate goals.
Further insights in the report indicate that while technical efficiency improved significantly from 2008 to 2012 through advancements like “eco ships” and operational changes such as “slow steaming,” these gains have since plateaued. Market barriers continue to hinder further efficiency improvements, leaving many technical and operational solutions underused.
The report stresses that fleet inefficiencies remain an issue, with some ships operating under capacity and spending more time in ports rather than at sea. For instance, large oil tankers showed improvement in their Annual Efficiency Ratio (AER), which assumes full cargo capacity, but underperformed in the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI), reflecting actual cargo carried and the practical impact on emissions.
According to Haydn Francis, a consultant at UMAS, efforts to reduce emissions have stagnated, underscoring the need for targeted strategies that address varying trends across vessel types. The report calls for alignment between fleet capacity and shipping demand to enhance operational efficiency and support decarbonization efforts across the sector.
Source. Offshore Energy
