Alphaliner: coronavirus will reduce by 6M TEUs the volume of cargo through China Ports
After prolonged holidays of the Chinese Lunar New Year and ad hoc measures aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus, reduce cargo volumes in ports in China by more than 6 million TEUs, according to Alphaliner estimates to WMN. Similarly, volume contraction is expected to reduce overall container yield growth by at least 0.7 percent throughout the year.
“The total impact of the Chinese coronavirus outbreak on container volumes will not be fully measurable until ports announce their full numbers for the first quarter, but data collected on weekly container calls at key Chinese ports already show a reduction in more than 20 percent since January 20, 2020, ”says the Alhaliner newsletter.
Carriers remain blank in February, which represents reduced cargo volumes. Navigation cancellation is expected to continue until mid-March, therefore, Alphaliner expects that any recovery in cargo volume can be adversely affected even after the end of the holiday.
Despite the current situation, carriers continue normal cargo loading and unloading operations in all Chinese ports, except in the Wuhan port, in the middle of the city closure.
Wuhan handled 1.7 million TEU of container cargo in 2019, which represents o.6 percent of the total performance of the Chinese port.
The coronavirus threatens not only the Chinese economy but potentially that of the entire world.
“The Chinese government will need to initiate powerful stimulus measures to counteract the economic effects of the virus once it has been contained. China has already halved tariffs, from 5% to 2.5%, over USD 75 billion in US imports. UU., Originally implemented in September 2019, ”predicts BIMCO.
“Other countries in the region, such as Japan and South Korea, which experienced low growth in 2019, with an annual fall of 6.3% in Japan in the fourth quarter of 2019, could feel the side effects of the coronavirus crisis It has the potential to damage exports from both countries and disrupt supply chains, given the interconnection of manufactures in the region. ”
As factories and offices in China remain closed for extended periods, BIMCO believes that this could also affect the implementation of the Phase One agreement between the US. UU. And China, especially if China cannot increase its US imports. UU. In the amounts detailed in the agreement.
“While the demand for container exports outside of China depends on other countries, the prolonged closure in the country’s manufacturing sector limits its ability to meet this demand, thus harming the container shipping sector,” Alphaliner said in its bulletin.
