Summer Supply Chain Shake-Up: U.S. Container Imports Face Decline Amid New Chinese Vessel Fees!

Major U.S. container ports are preparing for notable shifts in cargo volumes in 2025, with strong import activity anticipated through spring before experiencing the first year-over-year drop since September 2023.

The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates indicates that a proposed policy by the U.S.Trade Representative could introduce hefty fees of $1 million to $1.5 million each time a vessel constructed in China docks at a U.S.port.

Ben Hackett,Founder of Hackett Associates,cautions that as a large portion of the global container fleet is manufactured in China,these costs will likely be transferred to cargo owners and ultimately consumers.

This situation may lead to changes in port operations, as carriers might consolidate their calls at major ports and utilize larger vessels, perhaps sidelining smaller ports.

Hackett noted that while ports managed the surge in imports during late 2024 effectively, this new development could strain supply chains and negatively impact smaller ports across the nation.

Recent statistics reveal that U.S. ports processed 2.22 million Twenty-Foot equivalent Units (TEUs) in January—a 4.4% increase from December and up 13.4% year over year. Projections for March suggest volumes will reach 2.14 million TEU (up 10.8% compared to last year), with April and May expected at approximately 2.13 million TEU (up 5.7%) and 2.14 million TEU (up 2.8%), respectively.

However, forecasts for summer indicate challenges ahead; June may see a decline of about 3.2%, while July could experiance a meaningful drop of around 13.9%, bringing volumes down to an estimated low of just under two million TEU—the lowest since March’s figures last year.

Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, stated that retailers are striving to import as much merchandise as possible before tariffs rise further: “The fluctuating tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico won’t directly affect port volumes due to their transport methods; however, increased tariffs on Chinese goods—now doubled from ten percent to twenty percent—are concerning.”

Gold also highlighted how these tariffs impact consumers directly: “Ultimately, these taxes on imports are borne by American families who will face higher prices as long as they remain.”

Despite these hurdles, projections suggest that the first half of 2025 will total around 12.78 million TEU—a rise of approximately five percent compared to last year—following a strong performance in total imports during robust conditions throughout all of last year.

As it adapts to these evolving challenges within its landscape over coming months ahead lies an intricate period for the maritime industry marked by potential changes in vessel deployment strategies and port operations.