Tariffs on China Risk Hurting U.S. Economy More Than Data Suggest, NY Fed Says

(Bloomberg) —

New research suggests President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on imports from China could hit the American economy more than official US trade data indicate.

The impact, according to a study from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will be especially severe if the Trump administration ends favorable treatment of so-called “de minimis” imports — or those valued at less than $800.

“US imports from China have decreased by much less than has been reported in official US statistics,” Hunter L. Clark, a New York Fed researcher, wrote in a blog post published on Wednesday. “As a result, the recent tariff increase on China could have a larger impact on the US economy than is suggested by official US data on the China import share.”

There is little doubt that a hars…