Tariffs and Trade in 2025: Uncertainty Will Create Opportunity for Supply Chains

It can be difficult to pin down where exactly President-elect Donald Trump stands on tariffs on a day-to-day basis. On a Monday, he might propose 60% duties on all imports from China. Then on Tuesday, it’s another 10% on China, plus 25% for products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. By Friday, the news cycle could be peppered with headlines about Trump calling for the U.S. to retake control of the Panama Canal, or threats of tariffs against Denmark in a bid to have the U.S. absorb Greenland. It’s enough to make one’s head spin, but it’s also a reminder that in a world of uncertainty for supply chains, businesses will need to be ready for anything in 2025. 

“There’s no longer just waiting for a ‘black swan’ event — we now have continual ‘gray swan’ events, and supply chains have to now understand that this is the way of life,” says David Warrick, the executive vice president of enterprise for real-time supply chain visibility and risk-management technology provider Overhaul. 

Whatever trade rules under Trump end up looking like, everyone seems to agree that new tariffs will come into effect in 2025, and that costs for a variety of commercial and consumer goods will likely increase in kind. Even so, the actual specifics of those policies have been something of a moving target, which has made it difficult for supply chain leaders to plan accordingly. Given that — as well as the laundry list of other disruptions businesses are already dealing with — Warrick says that it’s important to remember that there isn’t a one-size-fits all solution that will work for everyone. 

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“I think supply chain practitioners have to be thoughtful and mindful of the situation that they’re in, but also know that this is only one of the many different adversaries that we are facing at this time,” Warrick says, pointing to the a string of recent labor disruptions, years-long worker shortages in the trucking and war