Russia Will Consider Black Sea Ceasefire Conditional on Lifting Western Sanctions

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On March 25, 2025, the US announced a preliminary agreement aimed at ensuring safe shipping routes in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia. Though, Russia has made it clear that its full commitment hinges on lifting Western sanctions affecting its agricultural exports and banking sector—something Ukraine and its allies firmly oppose.

This tentative deal emerged after three days of indirect discussions held in Saudi Arabia. While it doesn’t establish a complete ceasefire, it represents an attempt to ease regional tensions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed cautious optimism but highlighted that critically important issues remain unresolved. During these talks, US officials engaged separately with both parties in Riyadh to outline key points of the agreement:

• Assurance that commercial vessels will not face attacks in the Black Sea.
• A mutual commitment from both nations to refrain from military actions threatening shipping.
• An explicit understanding that commercial ships won’t be utilized for military purposes.

This arrangement echoes the 2022 grain deal facilitated by Turkey and the UN, which allowed Ukraine to export grain amid ongoing conflict. That pact fell apart in 2023 when Russia withdrew, claiming western nations failed to alleviate restrictions on its food and fertilizer exports.

While American officials view this truce as progress, Russia is vocal about its demands: lifting sanctions on banks and reinstating access to SWIFT for international payments.The US is currently evaluating these requests; however, Ukraine remains steadfast against any sanction relief. Zelenskyy cautioned that conceding would only bolster Russia’s position while his country continues fighting for survival.

A senior Ukrainian official anonymously criticized Russia’s approach as using peace negotiations merely as leverage for economic gain: “They haven’t done anything worthy of easing sanctions,” he remarked. “it’s all manipulation.”

Concerns also arise from Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov regarding potential threats posed by Russian warships operating in western Black Sea waters—raising questions about how secure this truce truly is.

In addition to discussions surrounding maritime safety, there have been talks about a temporary ceasefire focused on energy infrastructure lasting 30 days. Both sides had tentatively agreed not to target critical energy facilities; however, moscow has since accused Ukraine of breaching this understanding.

Russia provided a list of sites they claim should be protected under this agreement while warning that any attacks could jeopardize everything established thus far. Zelenskyy indicated openness toward an unconditional ceasefire concerning energy infrastructure but noted that Moscow hasn’t reciprocated similarly.

The situation remains complex as Moscow seeks a broader ceasefire contingent upon two conditions: halting Western arms shipments into Ukraine and ceasing military mobilization efforts within Ukraine itself—demands dismissed by Kyiv and its allies as unrealistic.

Amidst these negotiations, accusations fly back and forth; Russia claims drone strikes from Ukraine targeted civilian energy installations near Rostov nuclear power plant while Kyiv reports new missile assaults across at least seven regions—including over 100 injuries due to recent attacks in Sumy region alone where children were among those hurt.

In occupied Luhansk territory according to Russian sources—a missile strike allegedly carried out by Ukrainians resulted in six fatalities including three journalists—a stark reminder of how fragile peace remains amidst ongoing hostilities.

References: CNN, AP News