Retailers Accelerate Imports, Leading to Revised Q2 Projections

Retailers are ramping up their imports at U.S. ports amid ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and the possibility of new fees on ships manufactured in China, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). While the institution anticipates high import volumes to persist through spring, its Global Port Tracker has adjusted its second-quarter import forecast downward compared to last month’s predictions.

The NRF emphasizes concerns from its members about elevated import levels observed in early 2025, notably with strong monthly figures reported at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Though, following declines in consumer sales for January and February, the NRF now warns that import volumes may experience year-over-year reductions this summer.

The National Retail federation’s Port Tracker monitors container traffic at major U.S. ports. The group has increased its first-quarter forecast by 3.5 percent but reduced expectations for the second quarter by 2.5 percent. It now predicts potential year-over-year drops in imports starting in June and July—the first decline as September 2023.

“Retailers are striving to bring as much inventory into the country as possible before tariffs rise,” stated Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at NRF. “The fluctuating tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico won’t substantially affect port traffic as most of those products are transported by truck or rail. However, new tariffs on Chinese goods—rising from 10 to 20 percent—are concerning along with uncertainties surrounding ‘reciprocal’ tariffs expected in April.”

The trade association points out that while retailers are diversifying their supply chains, such changes take time to implement effectively.In the interim, they stress that tariffs act as taxes on imports ultimately borne by consumers rather than foreign nations; thus American families will face higher costs provided that thes measures remain active. Economists share similar worries even as Donald Trump recently downplayed recession fears linked to his trade strategies.

The NRF forecasts over 6.4 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) for imports during Q1 of 2025, noting a rise of 4.4 percent in January compared to December and a notable year-over-year increase of 13.4 percent. This upward trend is expected to continue into February with an additional growth rate of 6.1 percent—marking it one of the busiest Februarys seen in three years despite typically slower activity due to Lunar New Year factory closures across Asia—and anticipates a year-over-year increase of approximately 10.8 percent for March along with a projected rise of about 5.7 percent for April.

However, retailers predict this momentum will taper off with only a modest increase of around 2.8% anticipated for May followed by consecutive monthly declines thereafter; June could see a drop around -3 .2% year-on-year escalating further into July with an estimated decline reaching -13 .9%. The forecast also indicates container volumes may dip below two million TEU during July—a level not seen as March 2024.

The NRF is projecting total imports reaching approximately12 .78 million TEU during H1of2025—a growth rateof5 .7%comparedto lastyear.</ p>

If implemented,the proposed port fees on Chinese-built vessels could prompt carriers towards larger ships while major shipping lines might consolidate operations at key ports instead oftaking multiple stopsat smaller ones.Others speculate shippers may reroute cargo through CanadianandMexicanportsin orderto mitigate exposureto these potentialfees.</ p>

TheNRF believes that rising uncertainties coupledwithongoingtariff challengesare heightening concerns likely reflectedinimportvolumesas theyear unfolds.