In the midst of the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, a looming concern arises within the maritime industry regarding potential vessel overcapacity. Despite some carriers welcoming new additions to their fleets, the specter of surplus capacity in the liner sector remains a significant risk.
The resolution of the Red Sea conflict, whether in the short or medium term, could exacerbate the problem by rendering many ships redundant almost immediately. Even as some carriers seek additional tonnage to meet demands for Cape routed services, the influx of new capacity slated for delivery in 2024 and 2025 is anticipated to surpass these requirements.
According to Alphaliner’s latest forecasts, the addition of three extra ships per main Asia-Europe loop, boasting an average capacity of 15,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), would necessitate an additional 1.20 million TEU of capacity. Notably, some of this capacity is already in place, further contributing to the potential glut.
For the year 2024, Alphaliner predicts a delivery of approximately 1.91 million TEU worth of new neo-panamax and megamax ships, with another 1.43 million TEU expected to follow in 2025. These figures underscore the imminent challenge of managing vessel overcapacity in the coming years, particularly in light of the uncertain geopolitical landscape affecting key shipping routes.
The industry is left to grapple with the delicate balance between meeting evolving demand and avoiding a surplus of vessels that could undermine profitability and operational efficiency. As stakeholders navigate these complexities, strategic planning and adaptability will be paramount to weathering the storm of potential overcapacity amidst the backdrop of geopolitical tensions.
Source: Alphaliner
