Economic Risks and Outlook for International Business in 2025

The global economy is on track for a soft landing in 2025, a scenario characterized by stable growth and managed inflation risks, as economies adapt to shifting geopolitical and economic dynamics.

While GDP forecasts have been upgraded through 2024 due to disinflation and increased labor supply, the overall outlook for 2025 remains steady but unspectacular.

The global economy is expected to achieve modest growth, driven by contributions from Emerging Asia, the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, the Eurozone.

China and emerging Asia. Despite some struggles, China and its neighboring economies remain the primary drivers of global growth. China’s growth, though above the global average, reflects its middle-income country status in GDP per capita terms. Emerging Asia’s younger population and rising labor force bolster this region’s role as the “cart horse” of the global economy.

United States. The soft-landing narrative is particularly relevant to the U.S., where disinflation, rising nominal wages, and strong consumer spending, supported by a wealth effect from a stock market boom, contribute to steady growth.

Euroz…