China’s Navy Drills Near US Allies Seen as Test for Trump

The People’s Liberation Army has conducted shooting drills off the coasts of Australia, Vietnam and Taiwan over the past week. While the Chinese actions took place in international waters off Australia and Taiwan, they raised concerns over Beijing’s intentions — and whether the US will respond. 

“This is China testing the waters to see where the new boundaries are now that we are in the Trump 2.0 era of amorphous and pay-to-play US security guarantees,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. 

President Donald Trump’s sudden outreach to Russia, his ramped-up criticism of long-standing NATO allies and moves to raise tariffs have fueled doubts about whether the new administration remains a trusted security partner in other parts of the world. 

Beijing has taken notice of the cracks in US alliance, with a Thursday commentary from the official Xinhua News Agency warning that “being America’s ally is fatal.”

Read: New Zealand Tells China of Concerns About Live-Firing In Tasman

While China is generally the top trading partner for nations in the Indo-Pacific region, the US is seen as a security guarantor in capitals from Tokyo to Singapore. 

China typically keeps its military exercise locations vague, except when they take place in its jurisdictional waters. 

Australia and New Zealand said Beijing didn’t give them sufficient time to respond to the PLA’s notification. Australia had to quickly divert some commercial flights to avoid the area where Chinese naval ships were firing. 

Taipei, meanwhile, said it didn’t get advanced notice and warned that Beijing’s maneuvers would pose a danger to airplanes and ships in the area. 

Chinese officials haven’t given a specific reason for the latest exercises. In response to questions from Bloomberg, China’s Defense Ministry pointed to its spokesman’s remarks at a Thursday’s press briefing, when he reiterated Beijing’s position that its activities have been in line with international law.

Just off the mainland, Taiwan regularly finds itself under pressure from the PLA. But China’s navy has also “continued to grow its ability to perform missions beyond the First Island Chain,” the Pentagon said in a December report, referring to a string of archipelagos stretching from southern Japan to the northern Philippines. 

China’s Global Times cited military affairs commentator Song Zhongping saying the country’s naval exercises “are expected to become more frequent, and some countries should adjust to this trend.”

It’s not the first time China’s navy has operated far from its coast. The PLA has undertaken anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. But this time “there are no pirates to deter” in waters off Australia and New Zealand, said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. 

That makes the PLA Navy’s “show of force against two countries that do not threaten China seem aggressive and without a clear purpose,” Thompson added, referring to New Zealand and Australia. 

Even before the latest drills, China and Australia had seen an increase in military tensions after Australia’s navy undertook “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea, including sailing through the Taiwan Strait last year. 

This month Australia also accused the Chinese air force of an “unsafe and unprofessional interaction” with one of its military aircraft over the South China Sea, which Beijing claims as its territory. China’s Foreign Ministry rejected that accusation, saying the Australian plane “deliberately intruded into China’s airspace.” 

While Chinese exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin are relatively frequent, the latest drill coincides with Vietnam publishing a map defining what it considers its territory in the body of water between the two countries.  

The US has long-standing defense ties across the Indo-Pacific, yet the early signals to Europe echo Trump’s more transactional approach to foreign affairs. In his first term, Trump pressed Japan and South Korea to boost payments to Washington for hosting tens of thousands of US troops and he repeatedly met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, without managing to get the nation to end its nuclear weapons program. 

At the same time, Trump upgraded the role of the Quad, a regional bloc that includes Japan, Australia and India and is seen as tool for pushing back on China. 

A State Department spokesperson said the US will work to counter increased threats posed by its adversaries. The spokesperson said the US is committed to and in close contact with regional allies and partners, including about dangerous or coercive actions by Beijing.

America’s traditional allies in Asia may be looking for more. 

The drills damage “Beijing’s self-portrayal as a force for peace,” said James Char, assistant professor of the China Program at the S. Rajaratnam school. Yet “if the new US administration is seen as,…