Russia Set to Test New Delhi’s Nerve by Sending Sanctioned Oil and Tankers to India

(Bloomberg) —

Russia is sending cargoes of sanctioned oil to India on tankers that have been blacklisted by the US Treasury — setting up an acid test of Moscow’s ability to get around aggressive measures imposed by Washington earlier this month.

Three shipments of heavily sanctioned Arctic oil are all being carried to the South Asian country’s ports on tankers that were designated by the US Treasury on Jan. 10. In the Pacific, at least two cargoes from Sakhalin Island also appear to be on the way to India having spent time on US-listed vessels.

India has indicated that it would only allow sanctioned tankers that loaded before Jan. 10 into its ports — provided they get there before Feb. 27. All five shipments collected their consignments after Jan. 10.

At stake is Moscow’s ability to keep barrels flowing following the US measures, something that could ultimately dictate the country’s ability to maintain output levels. Failure to work around the sanctions would undermine expectations for a small surplus in the global oil market this year. 

So far, there’s no clear sign of a reduction in Russia’s flows since the measures were imposed by the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. A four-week rolling average of shipments observed by Bloomberg showed that they were little changed in the past seven-day period through Jan. 26, albeit at relatively low levels by historical standards. 

Daily crude flows in the seven days to Jan. 26 rose by about 320,000 barrels, or 11%, from the previous week to 3.07 million. Less-volatile four-week average flows edged higher from the previous week’s revised number, to 2.96 million barrels a day. Nevertheless, crude shipments in the first four weeks of 2025 were about 290,000 barrels a day, or 9%, below the average for the whole of the previous year.

A slump in flows from the country’s Balt…