The world’s most famous shipping economist, Dr. Martin Stopford, has calculated in dollars what shipping will have to spend on the global merchant fleet to ensure that ships meet the International Maritime Organization’s decarbonization targets by 2050, as well as to cope with the likely increase in trade over the next three decades.
The IMO has called for shipping to reduce its emissions by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 levels.
Speaking at a Capital Link event yesterday, Stopford, non-executive chairman of Clarkson Research Services, said, in what he admitted was a “very crude” estimate, that $3.4 trillion would need to be spent on modernizing the merchant fleet between now and 2050, split into $2.2 trillion to ensure tonnage is green enough to meet regulatory targets and $1.2 trillion to account for increased global trade.
According to Stopford, the huge outlay involved in fleet modernization can only be realized if charterers get on board to help shipowners meet their decarbonization targets.
An influential study last year by UMAS and the Energy Transitions Commission for the Getting to Zero Coalition put the bill for decarbonizing shipping to 2050 at between $1 trillion and $1.9 trillion.